Wind energy modeling for residential-scale wind power and sensitivity of economic valuation to errors in wind speed estimates

A residential-scale wind turbine has the potential to provide annual savings in electricity cost for a homeowner. The estimated annual saving is calculated based upon the estimated annual energy output (AEO) of a turbine. The annual energy saving is a key input in determining the net present value (NPV) and simple payback period (SPP), which are major factors in the economic evaluation. Since the power output of a turbine, and thus the AEO, are dependent upon the cube of the velocity, an accurate estimate of wind speed is crucial for turbine's economic valuation. The first part of this study used wind speed data from meteorological towers and flow modeling software to predict the output of a residential-scale turbine and compare the predictions to the actual energy production. Then, it is demonstrated that the uncertainty in estimated wind speed leads to the uncertainty in economic valuation of a residential-scale wind turbine.