TY - JOUR
T1 - Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States
AU - Meng, Lin
AU - Mao, Jiafu
AU - Zhou, Yuyu
AU - Richardson, Andrew D.
AU - Lee, Xuhui
AU - Thornton, Peter E.
AU - Ricciuto, Daniel M.
AU - Li, Xuecao
AU - Dai, Yongjiu
AU - Shi, Xiaoying
AU - Jia, Gensuo
N1 - Funding Information:
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. This work was supported by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Scientific Focus Area (TES SFA) project, the Reducing Uncertainties in Biogeochemical Interactions through Synthesis and Computing Scientific Focus Area (RUBISCO SFA) project, and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project, funded by the US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is supported by the Office of Science of the DOE under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725. L.M. is also supported by NASA Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Science (ROSES) Climate Indicators and Data Products for Future National Climate Assessments (INCA) Program “NNH14ZDA001N-INCA” and Future Investigators in NASA Earth and Space Science and Technology (FINESST) Program “NNH19ZDA005K.” A.D.R. acknowledges funding from NSF, through the Macrosystems Biology program (DEB-1702697). This manuscript has been authored by UT-Battelle LLC under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the DOE. The US Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for US Government purposes.
Funding Information:
This work was supported by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Scientific Focus Area (TES SFA) project, the Reducing Uncertainties in Biogeochemical Interactions through Synthesis and Computing Scientific Focus Area (RUBISCO SFA) project, and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project, funded by the US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is supported by the Office of Science of the DOE under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725. L.M. is also supported by NASA Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Science (ROSES) Climate Indicators and Data Products for Future National Climate Assessments (INCA) Program ?NNH14ZDA001N-INCA? and Future Investigators in NASA Earth and Space Science and Technology (FINESST) Program ?NNH19ZDA005K.? A.D.R. acknowledges funding from NSF, through the Macrosystems Biology program (DEB-1702697). This manuscript has been authored by UT-Battelle LLC under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the DOE. The US Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for US Government purposes.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
PY - 2020/2/25
Y1 - 2020/2/25
N2 - Urbanization has caused environmental changes, such as urban heat islands (UHIs), that affect terrestrial ecosystems. However, how and to what extent urbanization affects plant phenology remains relatively unexplored. Here, we investigated the changes in the satellite-derived start of season (SOS) and the covariation between SOS and temperature (RT) in 85 large cities across the conterminous United States for the period 2001–2014. We found that 1) the SOS came significantly earlier (6.1 ± 6.3 d) in 74 cities and RT was significantly weaker (0.03 ± 0.07) in 43 cities when compared with their surrounding rural areas (P < 0.05); 2) the decreased magnitude in RT mainly occurred in cities in relatively cold regions with an annual mean temperature <17.3 °C (e.g., Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania); and 3) the magnitude of urban−rural difference in both SOS and RT was primarily correlated with the intensity of UHI. Simulations of two phenology models further suggested that more and faster heat accumulation contributed to the earlier SOS, while a decrease in required chilling led to a decline in RT magnitude in urban areas. These findings provide observational evidence of a reduced covariation between temperature and SOS in major US cities, implying the response of spring phenology to warming conditions in nonurban environments may decline in the warming future.
AB - Urbanization has caused environmental changes, such as urban heat islands (UHIs), that affect terrestrial ecosystems. However, how and to what extent urbanization affects plant phenology remains relatively unexplored. Here, we investigated the changes in the satellite-derived start of season (SOS) and the covariation between SOS and temperature (RT) in 85 large cities across the conterminous United States for the period 2001–2014. We found that 1) the SOS came significantly earlier (6.1 ± 6.3 d) in 74 cities and RT was significantly weaker (0.03 ± 0.07) in 43 cities when compared with their surrounding rural areas (P < 0.05); 2) the decreased magnitude in RT mainly occurred in cities in relatively cold regions with an annual mean temperature <17.3 °C (e.g., Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania); and 3) the magnitude of urban−rural difference in both SOS and RT was primarily correlated with the intensity of UHI. Simulations of two phenology models further suggested that more and faster heat accumulation contributed to the earlier SOS, while a decrease in required chilling led to a decline in RT magnitude in urban areas. These findings provide observational evidence of a reduced covariation between temperature and SOS in major US cities, implying the response of spring phenology to warming conditions in nonurban environments may decline in the warming future.
KW - Phenology
KW - Temperature response
KW - Urban heat island
KW - Urbanization
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U2 - 10.1073/pnas.1911117117
DO - 10.1073/pnas.1911117117
M3 - Article
C2 - 32041872
AN - SCOPUS:85080099981
SN - 0027-8424
VL - 117
SP - 4228
EP - 4233
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
IS - 8
ER -