TY - JOUR
T1 - Uncertainty analysis of terrestrial net primary productivity and net biome productivity in China during 1901–2005
AU - Shao, Junjiong
AU - Zhou, Xuhui
AU - Luo, Yiqi
AU - Zhang, Guodong
AU - Yan, Wei
AU - Li, Jiaxuan
AU - Li, Bo
AU - Dan, Li
AU - Fisher, Joshua B.
AU - Gao, Zhiqiang
AU - He, Yong
AU - Huntzinger, Deborah
AU - Jain, Atul K.
AU - Mao, Jiafu
AU - Meng, Jihua
AU - Michalak, Anna M.
AU - Parazoo, Nicholas C.
AU - Peng, Changhui
AU - Poulter, Benjamin
AU - Schwalm, Christopher R.
AU - Shi, Xiaoying
AU - Sun, Rui
AU - Tao, Fulu
AU - Tian, Hanqin
AU - Wei, Yaxing
AU - Zeng, Ning
AU - Zhu, Qiuan
AU - Zhu, Wenquan
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
PY - 2016/5/1
Y1 - 2016/5/1
N2 - Despite the importance of net primary productivity (NPP) and net biome productivity (NBP), estimates of NPP and NBP for China are highly uncertain. To investigate the main sources of uncertainty, we synthesized model estimates of NPP and NBP for China from published literature and the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). The literature-based results showed that total NPP and NBP in China were 3.35 ± 1.25 and 0.14 ± 0.094 Pg C yr−1, respectively. Classification and regression tree analysis based on literature data showed that model type was the primary source of the uncertainty, explaining 36% and 64% of the variance in NPP and NBP, respectively. Spatiotemporal scales, land cover conditions, inclusion of the N cycle, and effects of N addition also contributed to the overall uncertainty. Results based on the MsTMIP data suggested that model structures were overwhelmingly important (>90%) for the overall uncertainty compared to simulations with different combinations of time-varying global change factors. The interannual pattern of NPP was similar among diverse studies and increased by 0.012 Pg C yr−1 during 1981–2000. In addition, high uncertainty in China's NPP occurred in areas with high productivity, whereas NBP showed the opposite pattern. Our results suggest that to significantly reduce uncertainty in estimated NPP and NBP, model structures should be substantially tested on the basis of empirical results. To this end, coordinated distributed experiments with multiple global change factors might be a practical approach that can validate specific structures of different models.
AB - Despite the importance of net primary productivity (NPP) and net biome productivity (NBP), estimates of NPP and NBP for China are highly uncertain. To investigate the main sources of uncertainty, we synthesized model estimates of NPP and NBP for China from published literature and the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). The literature-based results showed that total NPP and NBP in China were 3.35 ± 1.25 and 0.14 ± 0.094 Pg C yr−1, respectively. Classification and regression tree analysis based on literature data showed that model type was the primary source of the uncertainty, explaining 36% and 64% of the variance in NPP and NBP, respectively. Spatiotemporal scales, land cover conditions, inclusion of the N cycle, and effects of N addition also contributed to the overall uncertainty. Results based on the MsTMIP data suggested that model structures were overwhelmingly important (>90%) for the overall uncertainty compared to simulations with different combinations of time-varying global change factors. The interannual pattern of NPP was similar among diverse studies and increased by 0.012 Pg C yr−1 during 1981–2000. In addition, high uncertainty in China's NPP occurred in areas with high productivity, whereas NBP showed the opposite pattern. Our results suggest that to significantly reduce uncertainty in estimated NPP and NBP, model structures should be substantially tested on the basis of empirical results. To this end, coordinated distributed experiments with multiple global change factors might be a practical approach that can validate specific structures of different models.
KW - China
KW - interannual variability
KW - model structure
KW - net biome productivity
KW - net primary productivity
KW - uncertainty
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U2 - 10.1002/2015JG003062
DO - 10.1002/2015JG003062
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84973890114
SN - 2169-8953
VL - 121
SP - 1372
EP - 1393
JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
JF - Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
IS - 5
ER -