Toward "optimal" integration of terrestrial biosphere models

Christopher R. Schwalm; Deborah N. Huntzinger; Joshua B. Fisher; Anna M. Michalak; Kevin Bowman; Philippe Ciais; Robert Cook; Bassil El-Masri; Daniel Hayes; Maoyi Huang; Akihiko Ito; Atul Jain; Anthony W. King; Huimin Lei; Junjie Liu; Chaoqun Lu; Jiafu Mao; Shushi Peng; Benjamin Poulter; Daniel Ricciuto; Kevin Schaefer; Xiaoying Shi; Bo Tao; Hanqin Tian; Weile Wang; Yaxing Wei; Jia Yang; Ning Zeng

doi:10.1002/2015GL064002

Toward "optimal" integration of terrestrial biosphere models

Christopher R. Schwalm, Deborah N. Huntzinger, Joshua B. Fisher, Anna M. Michalak, Kevin Bowman, Philippe Ciais, Robert Cook, Bassil El-Masri, Daniel Hayes, Maoyi Huang, Akihiko Ito, Atul Jain, Anthony W. King, Huimin Lei, Junjie Liu, Chaoqun Lu, Jiafu Mao, Shushi Peng, Benjamin Poulter, Daniel RicciutoKevin Schaefer, Xiaoying Shi, Bo Tao, Hanqin Tian, Weile Wang, Yaxing Wei, Jia Yang, Ning Zeng

Earth and Sustainability

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

44 Scopus citations

Abstract

Multimodel ensembles (MME) are commonplace in Earth system modeling. Here we perform MME integration using a 10-member ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) from the Multiscale synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). We contrast optimal (skill based for present-day carbon cycling) versus naïve ("one model-one vote") integration. MsTMIP optimal and naïve mean land sink strength estimates (-1.16 versus -1.15 Pg C per annum respectively) are statistically indistinguishable. This holds also for grid cell values and extends to gross uptake, biomass, and net ecosystem productivity. TBM skill is similarly indistinguishable. The added complexity of skill-based integration does not materially change MME values. This suggests that carbon metabolism has predictability limits and/or that all models and references are misspecified. Resolving this issue requires addressing specific uncertainty types (initial conditions, structure, and references) and a change in model development paradigms currently dominant in the TBM community.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	4418-4428
Number of pages	11
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	42
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064002
State	Published - Jun 16 2015

Keywords

carbon cycle
model integration
modeling

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Geophysics
General Earth and Planetary Sciences

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10.1002/2015GL064002

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Schwalm, C. R., Huntzinger, D. N., Fisher, J. B., Michalak, A. M., Bowman, K., Ciais, P., Cook, R., El-Masri, B., Hayes, D., Huang, M., Ito, A., Jain, A., King, A. W., Lei, H., Liu, J., Lu, C., Mao, J., Peng, S., Poulter, B., ... Zeng, N. (2015). Toward "optimal" integration of terrestrial biosphere models. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(11), 4418-4428. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064002

Schwalm, CR, Huntzinger, DN, Fisher, JB, Michalak, AM, Bowman, K, Ciais, P, Cook, R, El-Masri, B, Hayes, D, Huang, M, Ito, A, Jain, A, King, AW, Lei, H, Liu, J, Lu, C, Mao, J, Peng, S, Poulter, B, Ricciuto, D, Schaefer, K, Shi, X, Tao, B, Tian, H, Wang, W, Wei, Y, Yang, J & Zeng, N 2015, 'Toward "optimal" integration of terrestrial biosphere models', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 42, no. 11, pp. 4418-4428. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064002

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AU - Tao, Bo

AU - Tian, Hanqin

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AU - Wei, Yaxing

AU - Yang, Jia

AU - Zeng, Ning

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N2 - Multimodel ensembles (MME) are commonplace in Earth system modeling. Here we perform MME integration using a 10-member ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) from the Multiscale synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). We contrast optimal (skill based for present-day carbon cycling) versus naïve ("one model-one vote") integration. MsTMIP optimal and naïve mean land sink strength estimates (-1.16 versus -1.15 Pg C per annum respectively) are statistically indistinguishable. This holds also for grid cell values and extends to gross uptake, biomass, and net ecosystem productivity. TBM skill is similarly indistinguishable. The added complexity of skill-based integration does not materially change MME values. This suggests that carbon metabolism has predictability limits and/or that all models and references are misspecified. Resolving this issue requires addressing specific uncertainty types (initial conditions, structure, and references) and a change in model development paradigms currently dominant in the TBM community.

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Toward "optimal" integration of terrestrial biosphere models

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Keywords

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