The first war of the 21^stcentury’s multipolar system: Capitalist expansionism and ensuing geopolitics

This article argues that during the unipolar era, capitalist expansionism created its own geopolitical rivals, which led to the emergence of the current multipolar era. It further suggests that the Ukraine conflict—framed as a proxy war between the West and Russia—constitutes the first major war of this multipolar era. While geopolitical and economic interests are ultimately intertwined, the article examines the distinct roles each played in the lead up to the conflict. The capitalist expansionism of the unipolar period (and its associated security coverage by NATO) is identified as the primary driving force behind the West’s support for Ukraine. The neoliberal turn in the political economy of the U.S. resulted in its foreign policy being increasingly dominated by economic elites that pursued profit-driven expansionism in East Asia and Eastern Europe—thereby sidelining traditional geopolitical considerations. This dynamic led to Russia’s response in Ukraine and facilitated the strengthening of its strategic alignment with China, thereby reinforcing the multipolar character of the current international system. By analytically distinguishing between economic and geopolitical interests, the article aims to offer a heuristic framework for fusing critical approaches with political realism to understand the political economy of international security. Specifically, the article proposes that there is an oscillating logic that underlies the tension between capital’s short-term profit imperatives and the long-term strategic calculations required by statecraft—a dynamic that shifts across bipolarity, unipolarity, and multipolarity.