Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties

Anna Maria Virkkala; Juha Aalto; Brendan M. Rogers; Torbern Tagesson; Claire C. Treat; Susan M. Natali; Jennifer D. Watts; Stefano Potter; Aleksi Lehtonen; Marguerite Mauritz; Edward A.G. Schuur; John Kochendorfer; Donatella Zona; Walter Oechel; Hideki Kobayashi; Elyn Humphreys; Mathias Goeckede; Hiroki Iwata; Peter M. Lafleur; Eugenie S. Euskirchen; Stef Bokhorst; Maija Marushchak; Pertti J. Martikainen; Bo Elberling; Carolina Voigt; Christina Biasi; Oliver Sonnentag; Frans Jan W. Parmentier; Masahito Ueyama; Gerardo Celis; Vincent L. St.Louis; Craig A. Emmerton; Matthias Peichl; Jinshu Chi; Järvi Järveoja; Mats B. Nilsson; Steven F. Oberbauer; Margaret S. Torn; Sang Jong Park; Han Dolman; Ivan Mammarella; Namyi Chae; Rafael Poyatos; Efrén López-Blanco; Torben Røjle Christensen; Min Jung Kwon; Torsten Sachs; David Holl; Miska Luoto

doi:10.1111/gcb.15659

Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO₂ fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties

Anna Maria Virkkala, Juha Aalto, Brendan M. Rogers, Torbern Tagesson, Claire C. Treat, Susan M. Natali, Jennifer D. Watts, Stefano Potter, Aleksi Lehtonen, Marguerite Mauritz, Edward A.G. Schuur, John Kochendorfer, Donatella Zona, Walter Oechel, Hideki Kobayashi, Elyn Humphreys, Mathias Goeckede, Hiroki Iwata, Peter M. Lafleur, Eugenie S. EuskirchenStef Bokhorst, Maija Marushchak, Pertti J. Martikainen, Bo Elberling, Carolina Voigt, Christina Biasi, Oliver Sonnentag, Frans Jan W. Parmentier, Masahito Ueyama, Gerardo Celis, Vincent L. St.Louis, Craig A. Emmerton, Matthias Peichl, Jinshu Chi, Järvi Järveoja, Mats B. Nilsson, Steven F. Oberbauer, Margaret S. Torn, Sang Jong Park, Han Dolman, Ivan Mammarella, Namyi Chae, Rafael Poyatos, Efrén López-Blanco, Torben Røjle Christensen, Min Jung Kwon, Torsten Sachs, David Holl, Miska Luoto

Biological Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

117 Scopus citations

Abstract

The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO₂ fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO₂ fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO₂ fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO₂ fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km²) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO₂ sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO₂ budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO₂ sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	4040-4059
Number of pages	20
Journal	Global change biology
Volume	27
Issue number	17
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659
State	Published - Sep 2021

Keywords

Arctic
CO balance
empirical
greenhouse gas
land
permafrost
remote sensing

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Global and Planetary Change
Environmental Chemistry
Ecology
General Environmental Science

Access to Document

10.1111/gcb.15659

Cite this

Virkkala, A. M., Aalto, J., Rogers, B. M., Tagesson, T., Treat, C. C., Natali, S. M., Watts, J. D., Potter, S., Lehtonen, A., Mauritz, M., Schuur, E. A. G., Kochendorfer, J., Zona, D., Oechel, W., Kobayashi, H., Humphreys, E., Goeckede, M., Iwata, H., Lafleur, P. M., ... Luoto, M. (2021). Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO₂ fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties. Global change biology, 27(17), 4040-4059. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659

Virkkala, AM, Aalto, J, Rogers, BM, Tagesson, T, Treat, CC, Natali, SM, Watts, JD, Potter, S, Lehtonen, A, Mauritz, M, Schuur, EAG, Kochendorfer, J, Zona, D, Oechel, W, Kobayashi, H, Humphreys, E, Goeckede, M, Iwata, H, Lafleur, PM, Euskirchen, ES, Bokhorst, S, Marushchak, M, Martikainen, PJ, Elberling, B, Voigt, C, Biasi, C, Sonnentag, O, Parmentier, FJW, Ueyama, M, Celis, G, St.Louis, VL, Emmerton, CA, Peichl, M, Chi, J, Järveoja, J, Nilsson, MB, Oberbauer, SF, Torn, MS, Park, SJ, Dolman, H, Mammarella, I, Chae, N, Poyatos, R, López-Blanco, E, Christensen, TR, Kwon, MJ, Sachs, T, Holl, D & Luoto, M 2021, 'Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO₂ fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties', Global change biology, vol. 27, no. 17, pp. 4040-4059. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659

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title = "Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties",

abstract = "The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m−2 yr−1). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.",

keywords = "Arctic, CO balance, empirical, greenhouse gas, land, permafrost, remote sensing",

author = "Virkkala, {Anna Maria} and Juha Aalto and Rogers, {Brendan M.} and Torbern Tagesson and Treat, {Claire C.} and Natali, {Susan M.} and Watts, {Jennifer D.} and Stefano Potter and Aleksi Lehtonen and Marguerite Mauritz and Schuur, {Edward A.G.} and John Kochendorfer and Donatella Zona and Walter Oechel and Hideki Kobayashi and Elyn Humphreys and Mathias Goeckede and Hiroki Iwata and Lafleur, {Peter M.} and Euskirchen, {Eugenie S.} and Stef Bokhorst and Maija Marushchak and Martikainen, {Pertti J.} and Bo Elberling and Carolina Voigt and Christina Biasi and Oliver Sonnentag and Parmentier, {Frans Jan W.} and Masahito Ueyama and Gerardo Celis and St.Louis, {Vincent L.} and Emmerton, {Craig A.} and Matthias Peichl and Jinshu Chi and J{\"a}rvi J{\"a}rveoja and Nilsson, {Mats B.} and Oberbauer, {Steven F.} and Torn, {Margaret S.} and Park, {Sang Jong} and Han Dolman and Ivan Mammarella and Namyi Chae and Rafael Poyatos and Efr{\'e}n L{\'o}pez-Blanco and Christensen, {Torben R{\o}jle} and Kwon, {Min Jung} and Torsten Sachs and David Holl and Miska Luoto",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd",

year = "2021",

month = sep,

doi = "10.1111/gcb.15659",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "27",

pages = "4040--4059",

journal = "Global change biology",

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T1 - Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain

T2 - Regional patterns and uncertainties

AU - Virkkala, Anna Maria

AU - Aalto, Juha

AU - Rogers, Brendan M.

AU - Tagesson, Torbern

AU - Treat, Claire C.

AU - Natali, Susan M.

AU - Watts, Jennifer D.

AU - Potter, Stefano

AU - Lehtonen, Aleksi

AU - Mauritz, Marguerite

AU - Schuur, Edward A.G.

AU - Kochendorfer, John

AU - Zona, Donatella

AU - Oechel, Walter

AU - Kobayashi, Hideki

AU - Humphreys, Elyn

AU - Goeckede, Mathias

AU - Iwata, Hiroki

AU - Lafleur, Peter M.

AU - Euskirchen, Eugenie S.

AU - Bokhorst, Stef

AU - Marushchak, Maija

AU - Martikainen, Pertti J.

AU - Elberling, Bo

AU - Voigt, Carolina

AU - Biasi, Christina

AU - Sonnentag, Oliver

AU - Parmentier, Frans Jan W.

AU - Ueyama, Masahito

AU - Celis, Gerardo

AU - St.Louis, Vincent L.

AU - Emmerton, Craig A.

AU - Peichl, Matthias

AU - Chi, Jinshu

AU - Järveoja, Järvi

AU - Nilsson, Mats B.

AU - Oberbauer, Steven F.

AU - Torn, Margaret S.

AU - Park, Sang Jong

AU - Dolman, Han

AU - Mammarella, Ivan

AU - Chae, Namyi

AU - Poyatos, Rafael

AU - López-Blanco, Efrén

AU - Christensen, Torben Røjle

AU - Kwon, Min Jung

AU - Sachs, Torsten

AU - Holl, David

AU - Luoto, Miska

PY - 2021/9

Y1 - 2021/9

N2 - The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m−2 yr−1). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.

AB - The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m−2 yr−1). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.

KW - Arctic

KW - CO balance

KW - empirical

KW - greenhouse gas

KW - land

KW - permafrost

KW - remote sensing

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Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO₂ fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties

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Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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Data for: "Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: regional patterns and uncertainties"

Predictions for "Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: regional patterns and uncertainties"

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Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO₂ fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties