Soil thermal dynamics, snow cover, and frozen depth under five temperature treatments in an ombrotrophic bog: Constrained forecast with data assimilation

Yuanyuan Huang, Jiang Jiang, Shuang Ma, Daniel Ricciuto, Paul J. Hanson, Yiqi Luo

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

12 Scopus citations

Abstract

Accurate simulation of soil thermal dynamics is essential for realistic prediction of soil biogeochemical responses to climate change. To facilitate ecological forecasting at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental change site, we incorporated a soil temperature module into a Terrestrial ECOsystem (TECO) model by accounting for surface energy budget, snow dynamics, and heat transfer among soil layers and during freeze-thaw events. We conditioned TECO with detailed soil temperature and snow depth observations through data assimilation before the model was used for forecasting. The constrained model reproduced variations in observed temperature from different soil layers, the magnitude of snow depth, the timing of snowfall and snowmelt, and the range of frozen depth. The conditioned TECO forecasted probabilistic distributions of soil temperature dynamics in six soil layers, snow, and frozen depths under temperature treatments of +0.0, +2.25, +4.5, +6.75, and +9.0°C. Air warming caused stronger elevation in soil temperature during summer than winter due to winter snow and ice. And soil temperature increased more in shallow soil layers in summer in response to air warming. Whole ecosystem warming (peat + air warmings) generally reduced snow and frozen depths. The accuracy of forecasted snow and frozen depths relied on the precision of weather forcing. Uncertainty is smaller for forecasting soil temperature but large for snow and frozen depths. Timely and effective soil thermal forecast, constrained through data assimilation that combines process-based understanding and detailed observations, provides boundary conditions for better predictions of future biogeochemical cycles.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2046-2063
Number of pages18
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
Volume122
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 2017
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • climate
  • data assimilation
  • ecological forecasting
  • freeze-thaw
  • uncertainty
  • warming

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Soil Science
  • Forestry
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Palaeontology
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Aquatic Science
  • Ecology

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Soil thermal dynamics, snow cover, and frozen depth under five temperature treatments in an ombrotrophic bog: Constrained forecast with data assimilation'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this