Reference conditions and historical changes in an unharvested ponderosa pine stand on sedimentary soil

Much of the previous research on spatial reference conditions in dry frequent fire pine forests have come from stand-level patterns under regionally average ecosystem conditions (e.g. soil type and precipitation). We evaluated the 1883 reference conditions of an uncut ponderosa pine stand representing a far end of the range of variability in terms of regionally unusual environmental conditions. Using a forest reconstruction model, univariate and bivariate Ripley's K functions, and regression analysis, we determined 1883 structural and spatial reference conditions, and compared those to the contemporary (2010) stand. Historical stand density was 77 trees/ha with a basal area of 8.0 m²/ha. Reference spatial patterns were significantly aggregated from 1 to 2 m and randomly distributed at distances greater than 2 m. Nearly 40% of the reconstructed trees were individuals, the average patch size was 2.9 trees, and the largest patch had 7 members. The contemporary stand had considerably greater densities and basal area than historical conditions and showed aggregation at all distances. Bivariate spatial analysis indicated attraction of post-settlement recruitment to live pre-settlement trees from 1 to 6 m and no association at distances greater than 6 m. We speculate that the historically random tree pattern is the product of a variety of factors including soil parent material, climate, and more homogeneous resource partitioning.