Market patterns within Indonesia's songbird trade

Songbirds recorded in Indonesia's songbird trade are more than quarter of its known species. However, only a fraction (approx. 30 %) has demand records. This trade is driven by supply-demand interactions, however current research commonly focuses on either demand or supply, and not its interactions. Understanding interaction patterns is crucial to answering what drives supply and demand, information pivotal to curbing unsustainable trade. We developed an approach to identify these interaction patterns and predict key drivers of supply and demand. We focused mainly in Java, using existing research we identified types of supply and demand data and using field surveys we filled in data gaps. We created the trade interaction value (TIV) by matching species supply and demand data to assess how well supply meets demand. We clustered species into three groups based on their TIV then developed a model to predict the cluster species with supply only records belonged to. The first cluster had the highest demand and was dominated by species with traits important for songbird competitions. Small or large sized, endemic species, and those listed as vulnerable or near threatened were important for the second cluster. The third cluster had traits common of household ornamental species. We predicted that 7.7 % of supply-only species were in the market opportunistically, while the remaining followed one of the three existing cluster patterns. Our research is the first looking at songbird trade from both sides of the market and we hope that it can be a reference for similar approaches applied to other taxa heavily affected by unsustainable trade.