@article{53b5ee745561452899a1ed40edcb01d7,
title = "Local adaptation of seed and seedling traits along a natural aridity gradient may both predict and constrain adaptive responses to climate change",
abstract = "Premise: Variation in seed and seedling traits underlies how plants interact with their environment during establishment, a crucial life history stage. We quantified genetic-based variation in seed and seedling traits in populations of the annual plant Plantago patagonica across a natural aridity gradient, leveraging natural intraspecific variation to predict how populations might evolve in response to increasing aridity associated with climate change in the Southwestern U.S. Methods: We quantified seed size, seed size variation, germination timing, and specific leaf area in a greenhouse common garden, and related these traits to the climates of source populations. We then conducted a terminal drought experiment to determine which traits were most predictive of survival under early-season drought. Results: All traits showed evidence of clinal variation—seed size decreased, germination timing accelerated, and specific leaf area increased with increasing aridity. Populations with more variable historical precipitation regimes showed greater variation in seed size, suggestive of past selection shaping a diversified bet-hedging strategy mediated by seed size. Seedling height, achieved via larger seeds or earlier germination, was a significant predictor of survival under drought. Conclusions: We documented substantial interspecific trait variation as well as clinal variation in several important seed and seedling traits, yet these slopes were often opposite to predictions for how individual traits might confer drought tolerance. This work shows that plant populations may adapt to increasing aridity via correlated trait responses associated with alternative life history strategies, but that trade-offs might constrain adaptive responses in individual traits.",
keywords = "Plantago, climate change, drought, intraspecific trait variation, life history strategies, local adaptation, precipitation variability, seed size, trade-offs",
author = "Kyle Christie and Pierson, {Natalie R.} and Lowry, {David B.} and Holeski, {Liza M.}",
note = "Funding Information: The authors thank Robert Massatti of the U.S. Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA for facilitating acquisition of seeds, and Adrienne Pilmanis of the Bureau of Land Management and Colorado Plateau Native Plant Program, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA for providing seeds from four populations. Matthew Bowker generously assisted with structural equation models; members of the Holeski Lab provided thoughtful comments on the manuscript. We thank two anonymous reviewers and the Associate Editor for their thoughtful critiques and suggestions. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation, including through a Postdoctoral Research Fellowship in Biology to K.C. (1906759), and through the Research Experiences for Undergraduates program (NSF DBI 1646666, NSF REU Site Award 1950421) supporting N.R.P.'s participation in the research. P. patagonica Funding Information: The authors thank Robert Massatti of the U.S. Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA for facilitating acquisition of P. patagonica seeds, and Adrienne Pilmanis of the Bureau of Land Management and Colorado Plateau Native Plant Program, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA for providing seeds from four populations. Matthew Bowker generously assisted with structural equation models; members of the Holeski Lab provided thoughtful comments on the manuscript. We thank two anonymous reviewers and the Associate Editor for their thoughtful critiques and suggestions. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation, including through a Postdoctoral Research Fellowship in Biology to K.C. (1906759), and through the Research Experiences for Undergraduates program (NSF DBI 1646666, NSF REU Site Award 1950421) supporting N.R.P.'s participation in the research. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Authors. American Journal of Botany published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Botanical Society of America.",
year = "2022",
month = oct,
doi = "10.1002/ajb2.16070",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "109",
pages = "1529--1544",
journal = "American Journal of Botany",
issn = "0002-9122",
publisher = "Botanical Society of America Inc.",
number = "10",
}