Is there a conservation relationship between tourism, economic output, and forest areas?

This study employed advanced panel data analysis, accounting for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity, to investigate the impact of tourism development and economic output on forest areas in major international tourist markets. The research was guided by forest transformation hypothesis (FTH). The study assessed the validity of FTH, examined the influence of tourism, and identified the income level at which a turning point occurs. The results revealed a heterogeneous impact of tourism on forested areas across major international tourist markets. Specifically, tourism development encouraged afforestation in Germany, Italy, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States, but led to deforestation in China. In contrast, no significant relationship was observed between the tourism-forest area nexus in Türkiye and Thailand. Additionally, the study provided evidence supporting FTH in the relationship between economic growth and forested areas in Italy, Spain, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Given these findings, the paper underscores the strong heterogeneity among the individual countries and their tourism, economic development, and forest areas. Consequently, country-specific sustainable policies are advocated over generic approaches in the fight against deforestation.