@article{2fd35207904348fbbda0825d84156621,
title = "Integrating forest health conditions and species adaptive capacities to infer future trajectories of the high elevation five-needle white pines",
abstract = "Tree mortality rates have been increasing globally with mountainous regions experiencing higher temperatures and impacts from the expansion and intensification of pests and invasion by non-native agents. Western North American high-elevation forests exemplify these trends, and they often include one or more species of five-needle white pines (High-5 hereafter). These species share many characteristics critical to defining the structure and function of many subalpine forests. The main threats to High-5 populations include the non-native pathogen Cronartium ribicola, which causes the disease white pine blister rust, climate-driven drought stress, episodic and high mortality from mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), and wildfires of increasing frequency, size, and intensity. The six High-5 species occurring in western North America (whitebark pine, Pinus albicaulis; limber pine, P. flexilis; southwestern white pine, P. strobiformis; Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine, P. aristata; Great Basin bristlecone pine, P. longaeva; and foxtail pine, P. balfouriana) differ in their health status and threat level. The convergence of threats impacting the rapidly declining species could portend future declines in the species and populations currently less impacted by recent disturbances. Differences in the innate adaptive capacities of the species affect their population trajectories under these novel combinations of stressors. We evaluate the status and outlook for each species and address the following questions: (1) Is the environment changing too fast and the intensity of stressors too great for the species to adapt and recover? (2) Do the species have the heritable traits necessary to sustain fitness under C. ribicola and climatic stresses? (3) Are other mortality factors increasing to the degree that they reduce the populations further and delay or preclude adaptation and population recovery? (4) Can the species escape the stressors through migration? Insights related to these questions provide guidance for forest management to facilitate adaptation and increase the resilience of these species into the future.",
keywords = "Adaptation, Bristlecone pines, Climate change, Foxtail pine, Limber pine, Southwestern white pine, White pine blister rust, Whitebark pine",
author = "Schoettle, {Anna W.} and Burns, {Kelly S.} and McKinney, {Shawn T.} and Jodie Krakowski and Waring, {Kristen M.} and Tomback, {Diana F.} and Marianne Davenport",
note = "Funding Information: We thank the organizers of the H5II Conference for the invitation to present this work as a keynote address and prepare this manuscript. We also thank the two anonymous reviewers whose comments improved the manuscript. In addition, we thank Sara Goeking for the FIA plot locations for the High-5 species, Jen Ross for the ADS map of five-needle pine mortality (Figure S1 in Supplemental Material), and Cynthia Moser for editorial assistance. We thank the generous contributions of WPBR presence, absence and incidence data used to develop Figs. 5, 7, 8, and 9 from (1) unpublished data from: R. Andrus (University of Colorado Boulder), Jim Blodgett (R2-FHP), John Boetsch (MORA/NOCA), Kristen Chadwick (R6-FHP), Danny Cluck (R5-FHP), Rob Daley GRYN), Meg Dudley (Adams State University), Brian Geils (RMRS), John Guyon (R4-FHP), Olga Kozhar (Colorado State University), Jodie Krakowski (Consultant), Patricia Maloney (UC Davis), Michael Murray (BC), Jonny Nesmith (SEKI), Brendt Oblinger (R6-FHP), Dana Perkins (BLM); Gregory Reynolds (R3-FHP), Regina Rochefort (NOCA), A. Saavedra (R4-FHP), Sean Smith (CRLA/LAVO), Cynthia Snyder (R5-FHP), Kristen Waring (NAU), Nicholas Wilhelmi (R3-FHP) and WPEF Hi5 Database and (2) published data from: Alberta Environment and Parks (in Prep); Blodgett and Sullivan (2004); Burn (2006); Burns et al. (2011); Burns and Schoettle (2018); Clason (2017); Cleaver et al. (2015); Conklin (2004); Dudley and Burns (in prep). Dudney et al. (2020); Fairweather and Geils (2011); Goodrich et al. (2018); Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group (2011); Jackson et al. (2010); Jackson and Lockman (2003); Jackson et al. (2019); Jules et al. (2020); Keane et al. (1994); Kearns and Jacobi (2007); Kegley et al. (2001, 2011); Kendall (1997); Klutsch et al. (2011); Kohler and Dewey (2005); Krakowski (2022); Lockman and DeNitto (2007); Looney et al. (2013); Looney and Waring (2012); Maloney (2011a,b); Maloney et al. (2012); Murray and Moody (in press); Nesmith et al. (2019); Newcomb (2003); Oblinger (2017); Schoettle and Coop (2017); Shanahan et al. (2017), Shepherd et al. (2018); Shoal and Aubry (2006); Simons and Cluck (2010); Smith et al. (2013a, 2013b); Smith and Hoffman (2000); Smith et al. (2000); Tomback et al. 2005a,b; Vogler and Charlet (2004); Vogler et al. (2017a, 2017b); and Zeglen (2002). We also acknowledge permission to adapt the figure in Carlson et al. (2014) for Fig. 4 (Elsevier License number 5180900279615). The findings and conclusions in this publication are those of the authors and should not be construed to represent any official USDA or U.S. Government determination or policy. The contributions of U.S. government employees to this work were supported in part by their respective agencies. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022",
year = "2022",
month = oct,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120389",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "521",
journal = "Forest Ecology and Management",
issn = "0378-1127",
publisher = "Elsevier",
}