TY - JOUR
T1 - Implications of uncertainty on regional CO2 mitigation policies for the U.S. onroad sector based on a high-resolution emissions estimate
AU - Mendoza, Daniel
AU - Gurney, Kevin Robert
AU - Geethakumar, Sarath
AU - Chandrasekaran, Vandhana
AU - Zhou, Yuyu
AU - Razlivanov, Igor
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported by NASA grant NNX06AB37G and NSF CAREER award 0846358. We would like to thank Broc Seib and William Ansley for assistance with information systems and the Rosen Center for Advanced Computing for in-kind support.
PY - 2013/4
Y1 - 2013/4
N2 - In this study we present onroad fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimated by the Vulcan Project, an effort quantifying fossil fuel CO2 emissions for the U.S. in high spatial and temporal resolution. This high-resolution data, aggregated at the state-level and classified in broad road and vehicle type categories, is compared to a commonly used national-average approach. We find that the use of national averages incurs state-level biases for road groupings that are almost twice as large as for vehicle groupings. The uncertainty for all groups exceeds the bias, and both quantities are positively correlated with total state emissions. States with the largest emissions totals are typically similar to one another in terms of emissions fraction distribution across road and vehicle groups, while smaller-emitting states have a wider range of variation in all groups. Uncertainties in reduction estimates as large as ±60% corresponding to ±0.2MtC are found for a national-average emissions mitigation strategy focused on a 10% emissions reduction from a single vehicle class, such as passenger gas vehicles or heavy diesel trucks. Recommendations are made for reducing CO2 emissions uncertainty by addressing its main drivers: VMT and fuel efficiency uncertainty.
AB - In this study we present onroad fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimated by the Vulcan Project, an effort quantifying fossil fuel CO2 emissions for the U.S. in high spatial and temporal resolution. This high-resolution data, aggregated at the state-level and classified in broad road and vehicle type categories, is compared to a commonly used national-average approach. We find that the use of national averages incurs state-level biases for road groupings that are almost twice as large as for vehicle groupings. The uncertainty for all groups exceeds the bias, and both quantities are positively correlated with total state emissions. States with the largest emissions totals are typically similar to one another in terms of emissions fraction distribution across road and vehicle groups, while smaller-emitting states have a wider range of variation in all groups. Uncertainties in reduction estimates as large as ±60% corresponding to ±0.2MtC are found for a national-average emissions mitigation strategy focused on a 10% emissions reduction from a single vehicle class, such as passenger gas vehicles or heavy diesel trucks. Recommendations are made for reducing CO2 emissions uncertainty by addressing its main drivers: VMT and fuel efficiency uncertainty.
KW - Transportation CO emissions
KW - Transportation emissions bias and uncertainty
KW - Transportation sector policy
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U2 - 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.12.027
DO - 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.12.027
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84873141386
SN - 0301-4215
VL - 55
SP - 386
EP - 395
JO - Energy Policy
JF - Energy Policy
ER -