Green Growth or Degrowth? Possible Outcomes for Climate and Society

As global temperatures continue to rise, those in favor of rapid climate mitigation face critical questions regarding maintaining current levels of economic growth. On a global scale, there remains a clear positive correlation between economic growth and carbon emissions, leading many climate scientists to call for a move away from a growth-focused economy. In this article, we draw from recent research to compare possible outcomes in terms of social well-being and climate mitigation for green growth and degrowth pathways. Green growth aims to maintain economic growth while reducing carbon emissions. Degrowth calls for a purposeful contraction of economic growth in wealthy countries. Drawing from recent studies, we compile evidence to compare these pathways and assess how each of these key strategies is evaluated and framed in the literature. We find that research indicates clear differences between these pathways in terms of mitigation potential and risks to human welfare, and we call for future research on specific topics related to a degrowth transition. Additionally, we identify issues of feasibility as primary concerns within both paradigms.