Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions

Xiaobing Zhao, Ding Du

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

43 Scopus citations


This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee etal. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)39-44
Number of pages6
JournalJournal of Environmental Management
StatePublished - Sep 1 2015


  • Carbon dioxide emissions
  • Environmental Kuznets curve
  • Global warming
  • Reduced-form econometrics model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Waste Management and Disposal
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law


Dive into the research topics of 'Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this