Field information links permafrost carbon to physical vulnerabilities of thawing

Jennifer W. Harden; Charles D. Koven; Chien Lu Ping; Gustaf Hugelius; A. David McGuire; Phillip Camill; Torre Jorgenson; Peter Kuhry; Gary J. Michaelson; Jonathan A. O'Donnell; Edward A.G. Schuur; Charles Tarnocai; Kristopher Johnson; Guido Grosse

doi:10.1029/2012GL051958

Field information links permafrost carbon to physical vulnerabilities of thawing

Jennifer W. Harden, Charles D. Koven, Chien Lu Ping, Gustaf Hugelius, A. David McGuire, Phillip Camill, Torre Jorgenson, Peter Kuhry, Gary J. Michaelson, Jonathan A. O'Donnell, Edward A.G. Schuur, Charles Tarnocai, Kristopher Johnson, Guido Grosse

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

243 Scopus citations

Abstract

Deep soil profiles containing permafrost (Gelisols) were characterized for organic carbon (C) and total nitrogen (N) stocks to 3m depths. Using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) we calculate cumulative distributions of active layer thickness (ALT) under current and future climates. The difference in cumulative ALT distributions over time was multiplied by C and N contents of soil horizons in Gelisol suborders to calculate newly thawed C and N. Thawing ranged from 147 PgC with 10 PgN by 2050 (representative concentration pathway RCP scenario 4.5) to 436 PgC with 29 PgN by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Organic horizons that thaw are vulnerable to combustion, and all horizon types are vulnerable to shifts in hydrology and decomposition. The rates and extent of such losses are unknown and can be further constrained by linking field and modelling approaches. These changes have the potential for strong additional loading to our atmosphere, water resources, and ecosystems.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	L15704
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	39
Issue number	15
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051958
State	Published - Aug 16 2012
Externally published	Yes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Geophysics
General Earth and Planetary Sciences

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10.1029/2012GL051958

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Harden, J. W., Koven, C. D., Ping, C. L., Hugelius, G., David McGuire, A., Camill, P., Jorgenson, T., Kuhry, P., Michaelson, G. J., O'Donnell, J. A., Schuur, E. A. G., Tarnocai, C., Johnson, K., & Grosse, G. (2012). Field information links permafrost carbon to physical vulnerabilities of thawing. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(15), Article L15704. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051958

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abstract = "Deep soil profiles containing permafrost (Gelisols) were characterized for organic carbon (C) and total nitrogen (N) stocks to 3m depths. Using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) we calculate cumulative distributions of active layer thickness (ALT) under current and future climates. The difference in cumulative ALT distributions over time was multiplied by C and N contents of soil horizons in Gelisol suborders to calculate newly thawed C and N. Thawing ranged from 147 PgC with 10 PgN by 2050 (representative concentration pathway RCP scenario 4.5) to 436 PgC with 29 PgN by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Organic horizons that thaw are vulnerable to combustion, and all horizon types are vulnerable to shifts in hydrology and decomposition. The rates and extent of such losses are unknown and can be further constrained by linking field and modelling approaches. These changes have the potential for strong additional loading to our atmosphere, water resources, and ecosystems.",

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AU - Harden, Jennifer W.

AU - Koven, Charles D.

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AU - Hugelius, Gustaf

AU - David McGuire, A.

AU - Camill, Phillip

AU - Jorgenson, Torre

AU - Kuhry, Peter

AU - Michaelson, Gary J.

AU - O'Donnell, Jonathan A.

AU - Schuur, Edward A.G.

AU - Tarnocai, Charles

AU - Johnson, Kristopher

AU - Grosse, Guido

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N2 - Deep soil profiles containing permafrost (Gelisols) were characterized for organic carbon (C) and total nitrogen (N) stocks to 3m depths. Using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) we calculate cumulative distributions of active layer thickness (ALT) under current and future climates. The difference in cumulative ALT distributions over time was multiplied by C and N contents of soil horizons in Gelisol suborders to calculate newly thawed C and N. Thawing ranged from 147 PgC with 10 PgN by 2050 (representative concentration pathway RCP scenario 4.5) to 436 PgC with 29 PgN by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Organic horizons that thaw are vulnerable to combustion, and all horizon types are vulnerable to shifts in hydrology and decomposition. The rates and extent of such losses are unknown and can be further constrained by linking field and modelling approaches. These changes have the potential for strong additional loading to our atmosphere, water resources, and ecosystems.

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Field information links permafrost carbon to physical vulnerabilities of thawing

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