External validation of a simple clinical tool used to predict falls in people with Parkinson disease

Background: Assessment of fall risk in an individual with Parkinson disease (PD) is a critical yet often time consuming component of patient care. Recently a simple clinical prediction tool based only on fall history in the previous year, freezing of gait in the past month, and gait velocity <1.1m/s was developed and accurately predicted future falls in a sample of individuals with PD. METHODS: We sought to externally validate the utility of the tool by administering it to a different cohort of 171 individuals with PD. Falls were monitored prospectively for 6 months following predictor assessment. RESULTS: The tool accurately discriminated future fallers from non-fallers (area under the curve [AUC]=0.83; 95% CI 0.76-0.89), comparable to the developmental study. CONCLUSION: The results validated the utility of the tool for allowing clinicians to quickly and accurately identify an individual's risk of an impending fall.