Effects of projected future urban land cover on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff to Chesapeake Bay

Allen D. Roberts; Stephen D. Prince; Claire A. Jantz; Scott J. Goetz

doi:10.1016/j.ecoleng.2009.09.001

Effects of projected future urban land cover on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff to Chesapeake Bay

Allen D. Roberts, Stephen D. Prince, Claire A. Jantz, Scott J. Goetz

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

41 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper examined the effects of simulated land cover/land use (LC/LU) change from 2000 to 2030 on nutrient loadings to the Chesapeake Bay. The SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) model was used with anticipated watershed-wide LC/LU change from a growth forecast model that provides spatially explicit probabilities of conversion to impervious surface. The total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loadings estimated to enter the Chesapeake Bay were reduced by 20% and 19%, respectively. In general, as development replaced other LC/LUs from 2000 to 2030, TN and TP runoff was significantly reduced by losses of non-point, non-urban source loadings, yields, and land-to-water delivery. The simulation results suggest future changes in landscape composition and configuration at catchment and riparian stream buffer width scales could lower TN and TP runoff to the estuary.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	1758-1772
Number of pages	15
Journal	Ecological Engineering
Volume	35
Issue number	12
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2009.09.001
State	Published - Dec 2009
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Chesapeake Bay
Estuaries
Landscape metrics
Nutrients
Projected urbanization
Remote sensing
Riparian stream buffers
Rivers/streams
SLEUTH model
SPARROW model
Watershed management

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Environmental Engineering
Nature and Landscape Conservation
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

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10.1016/j.ecoleng.2009.09.001

Cite this

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title = "Effects of projected future urban land cover on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff to Chesapeake Bay",

abstract = "This paper examined the effects of simulated land cover/land use (LC/LU) change from 2000 to 2030 on nutrient loadings to the Chesapeake Bay. The SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) model was used with anticipated watershed-wide LC/LU change from a growth forecast model that provides spatially explicit probabilities of conversion to impervious surface. The total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loadings estimated to enter the Chesapeake Bay were reduced by 20% and 19%, respectively. In general, as development replaced other LC/LUs from 2000 to 2030, TN and TP runoff was significantly reduced by losses of non-point, non-urban source loadings, yields, and land-to-water delivery. The simulation results suggest future changes in landscape composition and configuration at catchment and riparian stream buffer width scales could lower TN and TP runoff to the estuary.",

keywords = "Chesapeake Bay, Estuaries, Landscape metrics, Nutrients, Projected urbanization, Remote sensing, Riparian stream buffers, Rivers/streams, SLEUTH model, SPARROW model, Watershed management",

author = "Roberts, {Allen D.} and Prince, {Stephen D.} and Jantz, {Claire A.} and Goetz, {Scott J.}",

year = "2009",

month = dec,

doi = "10.1016/j.ecoleng.2009.09.001",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "35",

pages = "1758--1772",

journal = "Ecological Engineering",

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T1 - Effects of projected future urban land cover on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff to Chesapeake Bay

AU - Roberts, Allen D.

AU - Prince, Stephen D.

AU - Jantz, Claire A.

AU - Goetz, Scott J.

PY - 2009/12

Y1 - 2009/12

N2 - This paper examined the effects of simulated land cover/land use (LC/LU) change from 2000 to 2030 on nutrient loadings to the Chesapeake Bay. The SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) model was used with anticipated watershed-wide LC/LU change from a growth forecast model that provides spatially explicit probabilities of conversion to impervious surface. The total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loadings estimated to enter the Chesapeake Bay were reduced by 20% and 19%, respectively. In general, as development replaced other LC/LUs from 2000 to 2030, TN and TP runoff was significantly reduced by losses of non-point, non-urban source loadings, yields, and land-to-water delivery. The simulation results suggest future changes in landscape composition and configuration at catchment and riparian stream buffer width scales could lower TN and TP runoff to the estuary.

AB - This paper examined the effects of simulated land cover/land use (LC/LU) change from 2000 to 2030 on nutrient loadings to the Chesapeake Bay. The SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) model was used with anticipated watershed-wide LC/LU change from a growth forecast model that provides spatially explicit probabilities of conversion to impervious surface. The total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loadings estimated to enter the Chesapeake Bay were reduced by 20% and 19%, respectively. In general, as development replaced other LC/LUs from 2000 to 2030, TN and TP runoff was significantly reduced by losses of non-point, non-urban source loadings, yields, and land-to-water delivery. The simulation results suggest future changes in landscape composition and configuration at catchment and riparian stream buffer width scales could lower TN and TP runoff to the estuary.

KW - Chesapeake Bay

KW - Estuaries

KW - Landscape metrics

KW - Nutrients

KW - Projected urbanization

KW - Remote sensing

KW - Riparian stream buffers

KW - Rivers/streams

KW - SLEUTH model

KW - SPARROW model

KW - Watershed management

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JO - Ecological Engineering

JF - Ecological Engineering

IS - 12

ER -

Effects of projected future urban land cover on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff to Chesapeake Bay

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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