Direct demand modelling approach to forecast cycling activity for a proposed bike facility

Steven R. Gehrke, Timothy G. Reardon

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

8 Scopus citations


In the United States, planning and design efforts to generate bike-friendly environments through the greater provision of safe, low-stress bike infrastructure in our cities continue to advance. In Cambridge, Massachusetts, construction of the Grand Junction Pathway–an envisioned shared-use pathway–is at the heart of a citywide effort to enhance its active transportation system. However, a challenge–shared by many public agencies given that data on cycling activity are rarely frequently systematically gathered–is the creation of a baseline estimate of cycling demand for this planned network link. Using short-duration manual data supplemented with long-duration count data, this study employs a state-of-the-practice method for generating annual average daily bicycle trips for current bike network facilities. A statistical modelling strategy is then undertaken to forecast the volume of daily cyclists that the proposed off-street, shared-use path could expect to attract given its physical context and the socioeconomic attributes of nearby residents.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1-15
Number of pages15
JournalTransportation Planning and Technology
Issue number1
StatePublished - 2021


  • Bicycling
  • bike infrastructure
  • built environment
  • cycling demand
  • non-motorized traffic modelling

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Transportation


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