TY - JOUR
T1 - Climatic suitability for malaria transmission in Africa, 1911-1995
AU - Small, Jennifer
AU - Goetz, Scott J.
AU - Hay, Simon I.
PY - 2003/12/23
Y1 - 2003/12/23
N2 - Time series analysis of a climate-driven model of malaria transmission shows limited evidence for an increase in suitability during the last century across Africa. Outside areas where climate was always or never suitable, <17% of the continent showed significant trends in malaria transmission. Of these areas, 5.7% showed positive deterministic trends, 6.1% had negative deterministic trends, and 5.1% exhibited stochastic trends, in areas with positive trends, precipitation, rather than temperature, was the primary forcing variable. This analysis highlights the need to examine the relationship between climate and malaria more closely and to fully consider nonclimatic factors as drivers of increased malaria transmission across the continent.
AB - Time series analysis of a climate-driven model of malaria transmission shows limited evidence for an increase in suitability during the last century across Africa. Outside areas where climate was always or never suitable, <17% of the continent showed significant trends in malaria transmission. Of these areas, 5.7% showed positive deterministic trends, 6.1% had negative deterministic trends, and 5.1% exhibited stochastic trends, in areas with positive trends, precipitation, rather than temperature, was the primary forcing variable. This analysis highlights the need to examine the relationship between climate and malaria more closely and to fully consider nonclimatic factors as drivers of increased malaria transmission across the continent.
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U2 - 10.1073/pnas.2236969100
DO - 10.1073/pnas.2236969100
M3 - Article
C2 - 14663146
AN - SCOPUS:0346734142
SN - 0027-8424
VL - 100
SP - 15341
EP - 15345
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
IS - 26
ER -