Climatic suitability for malaria transmission in Africa, 1911-1995

Jennifer Small, Scott J. Goetz, Simon I. Hay

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

81 Scopus citations


Time series analysis of a climate-driven model of malaria transmission shows limited evidence for an increase in suitability during the last century across Africa. Outside areas where climate was always or never suitable, <17% of the continent showed significant trends in malaria transmission. Of these areas, 5.7% showed positive deterministic trends, 6.1% had negative deterministic trends, and 5.1% exhibited stochastic trends, in areas with positive trends, precipitation, rather than temperature, was the primary forcing variable. This analysis highlights the need to examine the relationship between climate and malaria more closely and to fully consider nonclimatic factors as drivers of increased malaria transmission across the continent.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)15341-15345
Number of pages5
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Issue number26
StatePublished - Dec 23 2003
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General


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