Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests

William R.L. Anderegg; Anna T. Trugman; Grayson Badgley; Christa M. Anderson; Ann Bartuska; Philippe Ciais; Danny Cullenward; Christopher B. Field; Jeremy Freeman; Scott J. Goetz; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Deborah Huntzinger; Robert B. Jackson; John Nickerson; Stephen Pacala; James T. Randerson

doi:10.1126/science.aaz7005

Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests

William R.L. Anderegg, Anna T. Trugman, Grayson Badgley, Christa M. Anderson, Ann Bartuska, Philippe Ciais, Danny Cullenward, Christopher B. Field, Jeremy Freeman, Scott J. Goetz, Jeffrey A. Hicke, Deborah Huntzinger, Robert B. Jackson, John Nickerson, Stephen Pacala, James T. Randerson

Earth and Sustainability

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

416 Scopus citations

Abstract

Forests have considerable potential to help mitigate human-caused climate change and provide society with many cobenefits. However, climate-driven risks may fundamentally compromise forest carbon sinks in the 21st century. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of climate-driven risks to forest stability from fire, drought, biotic agents, and other disturbances. We review how efforts to use forests as natural climate solutions presently consider and could more fully embrace current scientific knowledge to account for these climate-driven risks. Recent advances in vegetation physiology, disturbance ecology, mechanistic vegetation modeling, large-scale ecological observation networks, and remote sensing are improving current estimates and forecasts of the risks to forest stability. A more holistic understanding and quantification of such risks will help policy-makers and other stakeholders effectively use forests as natural climate solutions.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	eaaz7005
Journal	Science
Volume	368
Issue number	6497
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz7005
State	Published - Jun 19 2020

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Anderegg, W. R. L., Trugman, A. T., Badgley, G., Anderson, C. M., Bartuska, A., Ciais, P., Cullenward, D., Field, C. B., Freeman, J., Goetz, S. J., Hicke, J. A., Huntzinger, D., Jackson, R. B., Nickerson, J., Pacala, S., & Randerson, J. T. (2020). Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests. Science, 368(6497), Article eaaz7005. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz7005

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title = "Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests",

abstract = "Forests have considerable potential to help mitigate human-caused climate change and provide society with many cobenefits. However, climate-driven risks may fundamentally compromise forest carbon sinks in the 21st century. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of climate-driven risks to forest stability from fire, drought, biotic agents, and other disturbances. We review how efforts to use forests as natural climate solutions presently consider and could more fully embrace current scientific knowledge to account for these climate-driven risks. Recent advances in vegetation physiology, disturbance ecology, mechanistic vegetation modeling, large-scale ecological observation networks, and remote sensing are improving current estimates and forecasts of the risks to forest stability. A more holistic understanding and quantification of such risks will help policy-makers and other stakeholders effectively use forests as natural climate solutions.",

author = "Anderegg, {William R.L.} and Trugman, {Anna T.} and Grayson Badgley and Anderson, {Christa M.} and Ann Bartuska and Philippe Ciais and Danny Cullenward and Field, {Christopher B.} and Jeremy Freeman and Goetz, {Scott J.} and Hicke, {Jeffrey A.} and Deborah Huntzinger and Jackson, {Robert B.} and John Nickerson and Stephen Pacala and Randerson, {James T.}",

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doi = "10.1126/science.aaz7005",

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AU - Anderegg, William R.L.

AU - Trugman, Anna T.

AU - Badgley, Grayson

AU - Anderson, Christa M.

AU - Bartuska, Ann

AU - Ciais, Philippe

AU - Cullenward, Danny

AU - Field, Christopher B.

AU - Freeman, Jeremy

AU - Goetz, Scott J.

AU - Hicke, Jeffrey A.

AU - Huntzinger, Deborah

AU - Jackson, Robert B.

AU - Nickerson, John

AU - Pacala, Stephen

AU - Randerson, James T.

PY - 2020/6/19

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N2 - Forests have considerable potential to help mitigate human-caused climate change and provide society with many cobenefits. However, climate-driven risks may fundamentally compromise forest carbon sinks in the 21st century. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of climate-driven risks to forest stability from fire, drought, biotic agents, and other disturbances. We review how efforts to use forests as natural climate solutions presently consider and could more fully embrace current scientific knowledge to account for these climate-driven risks. Recent advances in vegetation physiology, disturbance ecology, mechanistic vegetation modeling, large-scale ecological observation networks, and remote sensing are improving current estimates and forecasts of the risks to forest stability. A more holistic understanding and quantification of such risks will help policy-makers and other stakeholders effectively use forests as natural climate solutions.

AB - Forests have considerable potential to help mitigate human-caused climate change and provide society with many cobenefits. However, climate-driven risks may fundamentally compromise forest carbon sinks in the 21st century. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of climate-driven risks to forest stability from fire, drought, biotic agents, and other disturbances. We review how efforts to use forests as natural climate solutions presently consider and could more fully embrace current scientific knowledge to account for these climate-driven risks. Recent advances in vegetation physiology, disturbance ecology, mechanistic vegetation modeling, large-scale ecological observation networks, and remote sensing are improving current estimates and forecasts of the risks to forest stability. A more holistic understanding and quantification of such risks will help policy-makers and other stakeholders effectively use forests as natural climate solutions.

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Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests

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