Classic Maya landscape adaptation, agricultural productivity, and political dynamics in the upper Belize River Valley

The upper Belize River Valley of west-central Belize is a complex ecotone where multiple environmental zones converge around the Mopan, Macal, and Belize Rivers. The valley's natural fecundity attracted Preclassic Maya (1200/1100 BCE–CE 300) farmers to the region, fostering population growth and the formation of several Classic (CE 300–900) polities. By the Late Classic (CE 600–900) the valley represented a dense conurbation of settlement focused around four major centers, each of these polities contained numerous intermediate elite headed districts of commoners. Evidence for political disintegration and demographic decline appeared around CE 750, coinciding with increasing drought, culminating in the complete collapse of these polities and a regional demographic crash around CE 1000. In this study, we combine environmental data and agricultural modeling to assess polity- and district-level agrarian productivity in the polities of Baking Pot, Cahal Pech, Lower Dover, and Yaxox. Our agricultural modeling indicates these polities could have generated significant agricultural surpluses under stable climatic conditions and low population density. Increasingly variable climate during the ninth to the eleventh century CE, however, impacted traditional rain fed milpa cultivation on the upland hillslopes in the south of the region, prompting out migration. In contrast, households situated on riverine alluvium appeared to thrive during this period. The case study highlights the importance of understanding environmental factors and agricultural strategies when reconstructing past political dynamics.