Bayesian inverse estimation of urban CO₂ emissions: Results from a synthetic data simulation over Salt Lake City, UT

Top-down, data-driven models possess ample power to improve the accuracy of bottom-up carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission inventories, and more work is needed to explore the merger of top-down and bottom-up estimates to better inform the metrics used to monitor global CO₂ fluxes. Here we present a Bayesian inverse modeling framework over Salt Lake City, Utah, which utilizes available CO₂ emission inventories to establish a synthetic data simulation aimed at exploring model uncertainties. Prescribing a high-resolution, urban-scale data product (Hestia) as the “true” emissions in the model, we combine prior emissions with an atmospheric transport model to derive modeled afternoon CO₂ enhancements at six monitoring sites within the Salt Lake Valley during the month of September 2015. A global high-resolution gridded emissions data product (ODIAC) is used as the prior, and objective uncertainty structures are defined for both the a priori estimates and the transport model-data relationship which consider non-negligible spatial and temporal covariances. Optimized (posterior) emissions over the Salt Lake Valley agree closely with the assumed “true” emissions during afternoon times, while results including unconstrained times (e.g. night-time) lack such agreement. Both spatial and temporal correlations of prior errors were found to be necessary for obtaining a robust posterior estimate. Model sensitivity analyses are performed, which examine correlation length and time scales, model-data mismatch error, and measurement site network variability. Through these analyses, one measurement site is identified as being particularly prone to introducing bias into posterior emissions due to influences from a nearby point source. Increasing model-data mismatch error at this site is shown to reduce bias in the posterior without significantly compromising agreement with monthly averaged true emissions.