TY - JOUR
T1 - Assessing development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed
T2 - An evaluation of two land-use change models
AU - Claggett, Peter R.
AU - Jantz, Claire A.
AU - Goetz, Scott J.
AU - Bisland, Carin
N1 - Funding Information:
We acknowledge collaborators at the U.S. Geological Survey (Janet Tilley, Jeannette Candau, Mark Feller and Dave Hester) for assistance with the SLEUTH model runs, Brian Melchior (University of Maryland) for help with data processing, Bill Burgess and Richard Hall for Maryland geographic information systems (GIS) datasets, and the Chesapeake Bay Foundation for assistance with initial scenario development. We also thank David Theobald for his advice and guidance in modifying the WFM. Claire A. Jantz and Scott J. Goetz were supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration grants NAG513397 and NAG1302010 to Scott J. Goetz.
PY - 2004/6
Y1 - 2004/6
N2 - Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations.
AB - Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations.
KW - Chesapeake Bay
KW - Land conservation
KW - Land-use change
KW - Mid-Atlantic
KW - Predictive modeling
KW - Urban sprawl
KW - Vulnerability assessment
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U2 - 10.1023/B:EMAS.0000016884.96098.77
DO - 10.1023/B:EMAS.0000016884.96098.77
M3 - Article
C2 - 15141451
AN - SCOPUS:1942540067
SN - 0167-6369
VL - 94
SP - 129
EP - 146
JO - Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
JF - Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
IS - 1-3
ER -