Applying demographic and epidemiological models in challenging situations: Grappling with a small sample size and complex sociopolitical contexts among the ancient Maya at Lower Dover

Objective: To demonstrate the utility of applying demographic and epidemiological models to assess the potential effects of sociopolitical status and childhood stress on survivorship, mortality, and morbidity to shed new light on life during the Maya Classic period. Materials: Elite and commoner burials (n = 63) from the Lower Dover polity, Belize dating to the Early (CE 250/300–600) and Late/Terminal Classic (CE 600–900/1000) periods were analyzed for lesions associated with developmental stress. Methods: Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression hazards analyses were applied to assess survivorship and mortality trends across ages, sociopolitical statuses, and for individuals displaying macroscopic indicators of cribra orbitalia and linear enamel hypoplasia. Results: Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression showed that there are no significant differences in mortality and morbidity between sociopolitical status groups when nonadults (<15 years) are excluded. However, among commoners, those with cribra orbitalia had higher survival than those without it (p = 0.02). Conclusions: Findings show that despite small sample sizes, paleodemographic models have the potential to elucidate the effects of early life stressors and that despite inferred status differences in Maya archaeology, elites and commoners experienced similar survivorship rates at Classic period Lower Dover. Significance: This study exemplifies how integrating paleopathological data with demographic modeling provides insights even when sample sizes are limited, and it clarifies some of the complexities inherent in understanding ancient Maya. Limitations: Poor preservation impacted the analysis of pathological conditions. Suggestions for Further Research: Paleopathology—broadly and in Mesoamerica more regionally—needs to engage in more rigorous model approaches and reconsider long-held narratives to make substantial headway in understanding the societal and biological impact of childhood stressors.