@article{3059e93acb9944debffeec9c375497f9,
title = "A hybrid correlative-mechanistic approach for modeling winter distributions of North American bat species",
abstract = "Aim: The fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans and resultant white-nose syndrome (WNS) continues to advance across North America, infecting new bat hibernacula. Western North America hosts the highest bat diversity in the United States and Canada, yet little is known about hibernacula and hibernation behaviour in this region. An improved understanding of the distribution of suitable hibernacula is critical for land managers to anticipate conservation needs of WNS-susceptible species in currently uninfected regions. Location: United States, Canada. Taxon: Bats. Methods: We estimated suitability of potential winter hibernaculum sites across five bat species' ranges. We estimated winter survival capacity from a mechanistic survivorship model based on bat bioenergetics and climate conditions. We then used boosted regression trees to relate these estimates, along with key landscape attributes, to bat occurrence data in a hybrid correlative-mechanistic approach. Results: Winter survival capacity, topography, land cover and access to subterranean features were important predictors of winter hibernaculum selection, but the shape and relative importance of these relationships varied amongst species. This suggests that the occurrence of bat hibernacula can, in part, be predicted from readily mapped above-ground features, not just below-ground characteristics for which spatial data are lacking. Furthermore, our mechanistic estimate of winter survivorship was, on average, the third strongest predictor of winter occurrence probability across focal species. Main conclusions: Winter distributions of North American bat species were driven by their physiological capacity to survive winter conditions and duration in a given location, as well as selection for topographic and other landscape features but in species-specific ways. The influence of winter survivorship on several species' distributions, the underlying influence of climate conditions on winter survivorship and the anticipated influence of WNS on bats' hibernation physiology and survivorship together suggest that North American bat distributions may undergo future shifts as these species are exposed not only to WNS but also to climate change.",
keywords = "bat, bioenergetic model, hibernation, hybrid, North America, species distribution model, white-nose syndrome, winter",
author = "McClure, {Meredith L.} and Haase, {Catherine G.} and Hranac, {Carter Reed} and Hayman, {David T.S.} and Dickson, {Brett G.} and McGuire, {Liam P.} and Daniel Crowley and Fuller, {Nathan W.} and Lausen, {Cori L.} and Plowright, {Raina K.} and Olson, {Sarah H.}",
note = "Funding Information: This project has been funded in whole or in part with Federal funds from the U.S. Department of Defense Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP), under contract number W912HQ‐16‐C‐0015. DTSH is funded by the Royal Society Te Aparangi, grant number MAU1701. We are grateful to WCS Canada and the BatCaver program (Cori Lausen), the Montana Natural Heritage Program (Dan Bachen) and NatureServe for providing bat occurrence data, as well as to the entities listed below for site access to collect data. We thank Nathan Justice, Eric Stofferahn and Tony Chang for valuable technical support and Renata de Lara Muylaert for helpful comments on the manuscript. Some occurrence data were collected by our team under the above funding contract. In the United States, all procedures were approved by the Texas Tech University Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee (protocol 16031–05). We obtained permits from the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks (2016–104, 2017–018 and 2018–008), Colorado Parks and Wildlife (16TR2172, 17TR2172, 18TR2172 and 19TR2172), Nevada Department of Wildlife (497636), Oklahoma Wildlife Conservation Department (6765, 6839 and 7243), Utah Division of Wildlife Resources (2COLL10094), Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (SPR‐0416–115) and the National Park Service (ORCA‐2018‐SCI‐0001). A written approval was also received from the University of Central Oklahoma Selman Living Lab Committee. In Canada, data collected by members of our team prior to this project conformed to the guidelines of the Canadian Council on Animal Care and were permitted by Alberta Environment and Parks (17–214 and 18–016), British Columbia Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations (MRCB15‐163558), Northwest Territories Department of Environment and Natural Resources (WL500648), Government of Northwest Territories Wildlife Care Committee (NWTWCC 2018–015) and Parks Canada (WB2018‐020 and WB‐2018–28777). The field teams practiced WNS decontamination protocols (United States Fish & Wildlife Service 2016 ) and coordinated as much as possible with existing bat surveys to minimise bat‐handling and disturbance events during hibernation. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government. Funding Information: This project has been funded in whole or in part with Federal funds from the U.S. Department of Defense Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP), under contract number W912HQ-16-C-0015. DTSH is funded by the Royal Society Te Aparangi, grant number MAU1701. We are grateful to WCS Canada and the BatCaver program (Cori Lausen), the Montana Natural Heritage Program (Dan Bachen) and NatureServe for providing bat occurrence data, as well as to the entities listed below for site access to collect data. We thank Nathan Justice, Eric Stofferahn and Tony Chang for valuable technical support and Renata de Lara Muylaert for helpful comments on the manuscript. Some occurrence data were collected by our team under the above funding contract. In the United States, all procedures were approved by the Texas Tech University Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee (protocol 16031?05). We obtained permits from the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks (2016?104, 2017?018 and 2018?008), Colorado Parks and Wildlife (16TR2172, 17TR2172, 18TR2172 and 19TR2172), Nevada Department of Wildlife (497636), Oklahoma Wildlife Conservation Department (6765, 6839 and 7243), Utah Division of Wildlife Resources (2COLL10094), Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (SPR-0416?115) and the National Park Service (ORCA-2018-SCI-0001). A written approval was also received from the University of Central Oklahoma Selman Living Lab Committee. In Canada, data collected by members of our team prior to this project conformed to the guidelines of the Canadian Council on Animal Care and were permitted by Alberta Environment and Parks (17?214 and 18?016), British Columbia Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations (MRCB15-163558), Northwest Territories Department of Environment and Natural Resources (WL500648), Government of Northwest Territories Wildlife Care Committee (NWTWCC 2018?015) and Parks Canada (WB2018-020 and WB-2018?28777). The field teams practiced WNS decontamination protocols (United States Fish & Wildlife Service 2016) and coordinated as much as possible with existing bat surveys to minimise bat-handling and disturbance events during hibernation. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd",
year = "2021",
month = oct,
doi = "10.1111/jbi.14130",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "48",
pages = "2429--2444",
journal = "Journal of Biogeography",
issn = "0305-0270",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "10",
}