A comparative wind investigation using mesoscale numerical predictions and experimental data at Aubrey Cliffs, Arizona

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the validity of mesoscale numerical weather prediction modeling near the complex terrain at Aubrey Cliffs, Arizona, and to investigate the influence of the outer domain size employed on the computational results. Mesoscale Modeling v5 (MM5) was implemented to produce numerical wind data that was compared with experimental wind data. The results obtained from the analysis show that MM5 predicts the wind flow near the Aubrey Cliffs accurately. In addition to predicting the wind speed and direction, the wind power density at the site was also computed. A three month MM5 simulation was completed for the proposed site, with a grid resolution of 1-km in the proximity of the cliffs. Two different gridding scenarios were used to investigate the accuracy of the numerical results and the effect outermost modeling domain. It was found that the model predicts the average wind speed at the site within 4% of the actual observed values. It was also determined that the MM5 model does not require an extended radius of influence to correctly determine the wind speed.